A Crisis That is Bigger than the US-Iran War Could Explode Soon!
Summary
1M65 presents an alarming thesis that the private credit market poses a systemic risk "many times bigger" than the US-Iran oil crisis, potentially comparable to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. While many of his factual claims about the private credit market are accurate — the market is indeed around $3.5 trillion, default rates are rising, refinancing walls are real, and banks do have significant exposure — the presentation style is heavily sensationalized with a clickbait title designed to maximize fear.
The video contains genuine financial education about private credit mechanics mixed with speculative doomsday scenarios. Recent developments (March 2026) show private credit stress is real — Morgan Stanley forecasts 8% default rates, Blackstone faced $6.5B in redemption requests, and Fitch reported record 9.2% defaults in late 2025. However, comparing this to the GFC or suggesting it will be "many times bigger" than a geopolitical oil crisis is disproportionate fearmongering that could cause retail investors to panic unnecessarily.
Claims Analyzed (17)
Source Quality
The presenter mentions using "three AI engines" for research and consulting his son. He presents slides with data but does not consistently cite primary sources. Some figures are approximately correct, others are loose estimates. The presentation mixes factual data with speculative scenarios without clearly distinguishing between the two.
Transcript
Introduction
A financial crisis far larger than the current US-Iran oil shock may be quietly building in the shadows of the global financial system. The private credit market, a $3.5 trillion sector that operates largely beyond the reach of regulators, is showing alarming signs of stress. With loan maturities from the cheap-money era of 2020-2021 now coming due, borrowers facing crippling refinancing costs, and an oil crisis threatening to tie the Federal Reserve's hands, the ingredients for a systemic financial event are falling into place.
This analysis draws on deep research into the private credit market, its interconnections with the traditional banking system, and the compounding effects of the current geopolitical oil crisis. The conclusion is sobering: if these two crises collide, the Federal Reserve may be powerless to intervene.
What Is Private Credit?
Private credit consists of loans made directly to companies by non-bank investors, bypassing both the public bond market and traditional bank lending channels. In essence, private credit firms act as intermediaries: they gather capital from investors seeking high yields, then lend that capital to companies at even higher rates, pocketing the spread.
The typical borrowers are companies that cannot access traditional bank financing — software and technology firms, cyclical businesses, and even distressed companies. On the lending side, the major players include private credit firms, private equity companies, insurance companies, and increasingly large asset managers such as Blackstone, Apollo, BlackRock, and KKR.
What makes this market particularly concerning is its opacity. Because these loans are not publicly traded, there is minimal regulatory oversight. Problems can fester invisibly until they become severe enough to threaten the broader financial system.
The Economics of Private Credit
The business model is straightforward but aggressive. Private credit firms offer their investors returns of 8 to 12 percent — attractive in any interest rate environment. They then lend that capital to borrowers at rates of 12 to 18 percent, sometimes higher when various fees are factored in. The spread between what they pay investors and what they charge borrowers is their profit.
To put this in perspective, these are borrowing costs that would make traditional bankers wince. The firms charging these rates are, in a sense, the "prim and proper loan sharks" of the financial world — professionals in suits conducting business that, in terms of interest rates, is not far removed from what informal money lenders charge.
Why Borrowers Accept These Terms
Despite the punishing interest rates, borrowers flock to private credit for three compelling reasons. First, speed: private credit deals can close in weeks rather than the months required for traditional bank lending, with its extensive due diligence, paperwork, and collateral requirements. Second, flexibility: lenders can customise deal structures to fit the borrower's specific needs. Third, higher leverage: private credit firms allow borrowers to take on six to seven times EBITDA leverage, far more than traditional banks would permit.
For desperate companies that need capital quickly and cannot access traditional channels, private credit becomes the only viable option.
Why Private Credit Exploded After 2008
The private credit market's explosive growth is a direct consequence of the regulatory response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis, governments and regulators worldwide imposed strict new rules on banks. Banks were forced to reduce risky lending, increase their capital buffers through higher capital-to-loan ratios, and largely exit the leveraged lending business.
This created an enormous vacuum. Companies that had previously relied on banks for financing — particularly those with higher risk profiles — suddenly found themselves with nowhere to turn. Private credit firms rushed to fill this gap, and the market grew rapidly from a niche activity to a $3.5 trillion behemoth.
The Crisis Taking Shape
The Refinancing Wall
The seeds of the current crisis were planted during the extraordinary monetary policy response to COVID-19. In 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near zero and flooded the financial system with liquidity. During this period, enormous volumes of private credit lending occurred, with borrowers locking in rates of around 3 percent.
These loans typically carry five-year terms. Simple arithmetic reveals the problem: loans originated in 2020 and 2021 are now maturing in 2025 and 2026. Borrowers who took on debt at 3 percent now face refinancing at 9 to 10 percent — a tripling of their debt servicing costs. For many of these companies, this is unsustainable.
AI Disruption Compounds the Problem
The timing could hardly be worse for the software and technology companies that represent a significant portion of private credit borrowers. These firms borrowed heavily during the cheap-money era, often to fund rapid growth. Now, artificial intelligence is fundamentally disrupting their businesses.
The explosion of AI capabilities means that tasks that once required extensive software development and large teams can now be accomplished faster and cheaper. Software companies that were thriving when they took on these loans are now facing existential threats to their business models, precisely at the moment their debts come due.
The Run on the Fund
As these pressures mount, a dangerous dynamic is emerging. Investors who lent money through private credit firms are growing nervous. They see the borrowers struggling, the AI disruption accelerating, and the economic environment deteriorating. Naturally, they want their money back.
But private credit investments are inherently illiquid — the loans cannot be easily sold or converted to cash. When redemption requests begin to surge, private credit firms face a devastating choice. Several firms have already resorted to "gating" withdrawals — essentially closing the doors and preventing investors from accessing their capital.
This triggers a vicious cycle eerily similar to a bank run. When investors learn that a fund has gated withdrawals, confidence evaporates. More investors rush to redeem before they too are locked out, intensifying the pressure. Some firms have been forced into fire sales, selling loan portfolios at fifty cents on the dollar to meet redemption demands.
The Banking System Is Not Insulated
Perhaps the most alarming aspect of this crisis is the degree to which the traditional banking system is entangled with private credit — far more than most people realise. While private credit ostensibly operates outside the banking system, major banks have extended substantial credit lines to private credit firms.
The reported exposures are staggering:
- Deutsche Bank: $30 billion exposure to private credit
- JP Morgan: $50 billion in support of the private credit market
- Bank of America: $25 billion to private credit
- Barclays: £20 billion to private credit
- Morgan Stanley: undisclosed but believed to be significant
In total, banks have approximately $1.9 trillion in lending exposure to non-bank financial institutions, including private credit firms. Even Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, Temasek, reportedly holds $7.5 billion in exposure to private credit loans in the United States.
The implication is clear: if private credit implodes, the contagion will spread directly into the banking system. What begins as a non-bank crisis could rapidly become a banking crisis.
The Oil Crisis Multiplier
The private credit crisis alone would be painful but potentially manageable. What transforms it into a potentially catastrophic scenario is its intersection with the current oil crisis driven by the US-Iran confrontation.
Oil prices have already reached $100 per barrel and could climb to $120, $150, or even $200 if the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint is disrupted. This would trigger severe global inflation and potentially stagflation — the toxic combination of economic contraction and rising prices.
Historical precedent from the 1973 oil crisis suggests that the worst effects of an oil shock typically play out over approximately 21 months before markets stabilise and recover. However, the current situation is unprecedented because of its intersection with the private credit crisis.
The Federal Reserve's Impossible Dilemma
This is where the analysis reaches its most troubling conclusion. The Federal Reserve effectively has one primary tool: the interest rate. In any given crisis, the appropriate response is usually clear. But the simultaneous occurrence of an inflation crisis and a private credit crisis creates an impossible bind.
If the Fed Raises Rates
Raising interest rates is the standard response to inflation. Higher rates cool economic activity and bring prices down. Without the private credit crisis, this would be the obvious move — painful for the economy in the short term, but effective at taming inflation.
However, higher interest rates would be catastrophic for the private credit market. Borrowers already struggling to refinance at current rates would face even steeper costs. The wave of defaults would accelerate, fire sales would intensify, and the contagion into the banking system would worsen.
If the Fed Cuts Rates
Cutting interest rates would help the private credit market by making refinancing more affordable and reducing the pressure on borrowers. This is precisely what the Federal Reserve did after the 2008 financial crisis — it slashed rates, printed money, and gradually resolved the crisis over several years.
But cutting rates in an inflationary environment fuelled by oil prices would pour petrol on the fire. Inflation would accelerate, eroding purchasing power, devastating savers, and potentially spiralling out of control.
The Verdict: Powerless
The Federal Reserve is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Every available action makes one of the two crises worse. This is fundamentally different from 2008, when the Fed could print money freely because inflation was not a concern. Today, with oil-driven inflation constraining monetary policy, the Fed's most powerful tools are effectively neutralised.
If both crises fully materialise simultaneously, the result could be what amounts to a thermonuclear explosion in the financial sector — a crisis potentially comparable in scale to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, but with the crucial difference that the usual remedy is unavailable.
Comparison to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
The parallels to 2007-2008 are striking. Both involve opaque lending markets that grew rapidly in a low-rate environment. Both feature complex interconnections between the shadow banking system and the regulated banking system. Both involve a sudden repricing of risk after years of complacency.
But there is a critical difference. In 2008, the Federal Reserve could respond aggressively because inflation was not a threat. It could slash rates to zero, engage in quantitative easing, and effectively print its way out of the crisis. It took several years, but the strategy worked.
Today, if the private credit market explodes while oil-driven inflation rages, that playbook is unavailable. The Fed cannot print money without fuelling inflation further. It cannot cut rates without making the inflation crisis worse. The system's usual safety valve is jammed shut.
Investment Implications
Bonds and Fixed Income
In an inflationary environment, bonds face significant headwinds. Long-duration Treasury ETFs like TLT will decline in value as inflation expectations rise. However, the assessment of whether to sell depends critically on whether the inflation proves to be short-term or sustained. A short-term oil shock may not justify abandoning bond positions with attractive yield characteristics.
PIMCO bond funds, for instance, may decline due to inflation risk rather than private credit contagion — provided PIMCO itself does not have significant exposure to private credit lending. The key question for any bond holding is the duration of the inflationary period.
Equities and REITs
Real Estate Investment Trusts are particularly vulnerable in an inflationary environment and should be approached with extreme caution. Singapore equities have declined but not yet reached levels that represent compelling value for crash-buying strategies.
The US National Debt Perspective
While the US national debt is enormous, it is denominated in US dollars — a currency that the US government can print at will. This gives the US a unique advantage: it can technically always service its debt by creating more currency. The cost is inflation, but crucially, that inflation is shared globally by all holders of US dollar-denominated assets. This means the US debt problem, while significant, is not yet at the point of triggering an independent crisis.
Asset Allocation by Age
A prudent approach ties bond allocation to age: a 70-year-old should hold approximately 70 percent of assets in stable instruments like bonds, with no more than 30 percent in volatile assets. This framework becomes especially important during periods of elevated crisis risk.
Gold
Gold should theoretically appreciate in an environment characterised by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation fears, and financial system stress, though precise price movements remain difficult to predict.
Conclusion
The $3.5 trillion private credit market represents a systemic risk that has been building largely out of public view. The convergence of loan maturities from the cheap-money era, AI disruption of key borrower industries, rising redemption pressures, and deep interconnections with the traditional banking system would constitute a serious financial challenge under any circumstances.
What elevates this from a painful but manageable correction to a potentially historic crisis is the simultaneous emergence of the oil shock and its inflationary consequences. The Federal Reserve, normally the financial system's lender of last resort and crisis manager, finds itself in an impossible position where its primary tools are neutralised by conflicting pressures.
Whether this scenario fully materialises remains uncertain. The oil crisis may resolve faster than feared. The private credit market's stress may prove manageable. But the risk is real, the scale is enormous, and the usual safety mechanisms may not function. The time to prepare for this possibility is now — not after the crisis has already begun to unfold.
Show raw transcript with timestamps
A very good evening to everybody. As we wait for people to come in, today I'll be talking about a crisis many times bigger than the US Iran war that is currently leading into a oil shock. But this crisis I'm talking about, if it ever happens, will be many times bigger than an oil crisis. So I thought it is important for me to talk about it. So everybody come in right now quickly hit a thumbs up and I good to go. Nam good to see you. Good to see you. Priscilla good to see you. Okay. Yeah. Lucky Jason. Okay. Good to see you. Set Heer. Okay. Element master Dave. Good to see you. Dave I don't see you for a long time. Randy good to see you. [clears throat] King world family. Good to see you. Angeline, good to see you. Skip to Mala, good to see you. Chairman Meow, good to see you. Okay, I always want to ask you, Chairman, Meow, your
house got cat, is it? Okay, Lionel Pauline, uh, Ten Tai, good to see you. Jermaine, good to see you, too. Uh, Win King, good to see you. Eddie, very good to see you. Dragon. Wow. Dragon Tanke. Okay. It's my honor to have you in my channel. [clears throat] Leeling and Raymond and uh Match Boy. Good to see you. Hope that all is good. You huh? Mr. Mr. Tan. Okay. [clears throat] Energy. Okay. Um [clears throat] Okay. Uh Kari is give me a minute. I will share with you. Okay. Sean, good to see you, brother. Uh Edling, good to see you too. Sky Track, good to see you. Okay, what what nuclear? Sorry, good to see you. Uh, DH, uh, Chang, good to see you, too. Christopher, good to see you. Uh, Meow
Meow is not here. I I'm not in the house. Yes, it's regarding the private credit market. Oh, [clears throat] Lingling, good to see you, too. Jennifer, good to see you. and James. Okay. Um Wings Elyn, uh Edelene, Angeline, sorry, your mom, [clears throat] Felix, Christine. Good to see everybody. Now, thanks for everybody for joining in. Just keep hitting a thumbs up. And today I will talk about I think it's a far bigger crisis than private than uh the US Iran oil crisis. H I had a chance to talk to my son for almost two hours on it. Now he can't make the talk today although I invited
him for two reasons. Number one, Ben is rather shy. [clears throat] And number two, you know, he has to go back to campus. And meanwhile, I got to be here for I got to be here for uh in Malaysia. So, we kind of split way after that. Grandma, good to see you. Long time no see too. Yes. So I I've decided to just suck the brains uh uh brain cells out of him uh on this topic and I had the help of uh three AI engines helping me so that I can get myself ready. Uh so so I went through a very deep research on the private credit market and it was far worse than I thought. So I thought it's important. Uh most of my live stream is bad news. These are bad times. Yeah,
these are bad times, right? When it's good times, I I mean you look back in those days in 2024 and 2025, all good news. Okay. And now 2026 is bad news. I report bad news as it is. But more importantly, how do we prepare ourselves for it? That's more important. Okay. So yeah, this JB Curt this actually their curtains here are very nice and very pretty. Okay. So let's not waste time. Shall we go straight into it? Are you guys ready? Just be prepared uh be [clears throat] prepared to take this very surprising piece of news. Okay. So, uh, I'm going to now Oh, by the way, uh, I got myself another monitor. Uh, [clears throat] so I think it's easier to, uh, to handle it. [clears throat] Uh, yes, this is my Malaysia. Got some flame. So, sorry. So, um, let
me just share everybody now. Let me see where how I do it. Okay, can you guys see my uh can you guys see my slides? Uh maybe I I think maybe I shouldn't do this. Okay, let me see how to do this. Okay, m maybe I should do this without I'm trying. This is the first time I'm using two screen for my live stream. Okay, I think I can do this right now. I don't need to turn on my uh my phone. Okay. All right. So, I just want to ask everybody um how familiar are you guys uh to this thing called the private credit market? Okay. How familiar are you guys? Are you guys very familiar or not so familiar? Okay. Now, uh if you are if you are not familiar, okay, if
you are not familiar, okay, it's understandable. But if you are familiar you know I'll be very surprised because uh this private credit market is a very opaque market very difficult to understand. So uh if you are if you are if you are familiar say yes I'm very familiar no I say not very familiar okay so I can cater to you guys. Okay not so familiar. Okay so my eyes looking there means I'm looking at the other uh your comment screen. Okay so please uh forgive me. Oh yes, I forgotten. I think there's a way to put my comments on uh on the screen now. Huh? Oh yes, like that. Oh, yes. Are you guys okay with this uh screen? If you're okay with this screen, I can uh do it. Okay, let's let's try this, shall we? Okay, I'm not uh let's see how to do this. Okay, guys, give me a minute. Okay. All right. Um,
wait. How to Give me a minute. H I still figuring out how to use this. Uh, okay. You know what, guys? Um, I'm just going to now do this. Um, okay. And I'm going to pull this out. Okay. Too much technology is also a problem. So, sorry. Yeah. Uh, this is the first time I'm doing this, so Oh no, my slides are missing. Oh man. Okay, you know what? I think um Okay, I'm I'm okay. I think that's better. Sorry guys, I'm uh trying to figure out which is the best way of doing it. I I think I think this more primitive way is better. Okay. Um Yes. Okay. Yep. So I
think better turn on my um my mobile phone so I can see your comments. Okay. Wait a minute guys. So sorry. Still figuring out how to do this. Okay. All right. Okay. I got it. Okay. I got it. All right. Okay. Okay, there are some comments on the side. Uh maybe we'll just we just live with it. Okay, no actually this this can't be done. Okay, let me just turn off the comments on stage. There's a reason why because these slides have a lot of uh [clears throat] Okay. So, first of all, I I need to say that uh this research material is a work of is a work of uh my interaction with three uh AI LLM machines and I think it is a very good deck. Uh if you guys want this
[clears throat] uh thing later I'll give you my telegram group. I'll put this deck of slides into the telegram group. Okay. Uh I'll encourage all the people to also join the telegram channel. Uh this is a crisis that is potentially many times bigger than the oil crisis. So I think you all should have a deck. I'm pretty willing to share this deck. So this looming crisis as I mentioned could potentially be bigger than the Iran oil crisis depending how it pans out and also how it interacts with the Iran oil crisis. And last is what is the Federal Reserve respond to it. This is a $3.5 trillion problem. Okay, this is a $3.5 trillion problem is not trivial. Uh this is the private credit market crisis. Now first of all a lot of people don't understand what the private credit market. Yesterday night I did attempt to explain very briefly. Today after understanding
the problem I've decided to go deep in that. So uh the executive summary of this uh this problem really is that the global financial crisis sorry the s the system right now is evolving a particular crisis and it is at a size of $3.5 trillion. Uh I think it's a very big problem [clears throat] and it's all revolving around this thing called private credit and it could spread to banks, insurers, pensions, private credit, retail investors like all of us and and I think it's really very big now the oil crisis that we are facing and we are still facing it by the way which I think over the next it is so volatile I don't know how to predict And if the oil crisis pan out in the worst form that I can think of, my
guess, okay, my guess, huh? Okay, it's going to be a a matter of a few weeks or a few months and you'll be over this crisis. If it blows up, oh, you'll be very big. You'll be very big. and is uh I would say it is potentially comparable to the 2007208 global financial crisis that kind of leak. Okay, but let's take a look at it now. First of all, what is private credit? Private credit is basically loans that are made directly to companies by non-bank investors. Okay, there are loans make by companies, okay, make to companies by non-bank investors and I'll talk about who the borrowers are. Uh, and I'll talk about who the lenders are. It bypass the public bond market and traditional bank channels. In short, this market is not regulated. So
you cannot uh once once this thing uh once this thing uh goes into the system the regulators uh generally have no oversight over it and more importantly this part is uh quite opaque cannot really see what's happening and things like that. So the typical borrowers are software companies cyclical business companies that that find it very difficult to borrow money. Okay. Now, we'll talk about it later. And the lenders are people uh from there are what they call private credit uh companies, private equity firms, insurance company and increasingly asset managers, okay, like Blackstone, um Apollo and Black Rockck and KKR and all these guys are all in and I later will show that even the banks are involved in this as well. So because these loans are not publicly traded, uh there's nothing to see it until
something serious happened. So now why did private credit explode after 2008? Now why do people in some sense this is like instead of going to public market uh like the banks and financial institution to borrow money, they go to all these guys in the best way to explain that these are corporate tong. Okay. Does everybody understand this? Edin, good to see you, sister. They are they are like uh like um they're like really business tailong. Okay, taong. Uh how do you say taiilong in English? Lone sharks. Okay, they are prim and proper lone sharks. People who wear suits and jacket. They don't they don't chop off a pig head and look uh and and don't have this pyan to come and ask for money. They kind of thing. But trust me their their interest that they charge are not far away from the lone sharks. So uh the reason why this thing exploded after
2008 because after 2008 a lot of regulation come down to force the bank to reduce risky lending and they have to increase a lot of uh capital buffers. we call it uh uh uh capital to loan ratios and uh and they basically have to exit what we call leverage lending. Okay. And as a result, these companies which the banks will not lend money to have no one to turn to but to go into into other lenders. These give rise to a lot of companies who is willing to take this risk. So they are basically leverage companies um that wanted money but got no banks to turn to. Here comes this uh generous generous company called the private credit companies and they offer a very good uh very good very good terms in the beginning but increasingly become more. So what they
do is that uh the private credit companies they offer listen very carefully they offer to lenders that means people with a lot of spare cash give me give me money to lend to all this company I'll be your intermediary I will give you 8 to 12%. Listen very carefully. Yeah. I'll give you 8 to 12%. On the other hand, I'll lend it out at maybe 18% or something like that and they make a carry. So this uh first of all the borrower needed this money desperately and and there are people with a lot of spare cash don't know where to do they pump it into private credit uh companies. So the private uh capital companies are literally uh middlemen acting as banks. Okay, in some sense acting at banks they take money from all these uh people with spare cash give them a high return they lend out even higher. So now let me tell
you what is the typical borrowing cost. That means the borrower has to borrow at a very high rate. Okay. Now how high is high? Okay. So the the so the basically the the borrowing cost can go can go to uh 12 to 15% sometimes 13 to 18%. Uh that's largely because that's largely because the there are a lot of fees involved and things like that. So the borrowing cost goes up uh really a lot. Okay. So these are very high borrowing costs. And who are these borrowers? Well um they are I think the biggest one that I can think of are really number three software and technology company. These are companies during uh 20 2018 19 to 2020 21 that period a lot of software company became very popular. Okay. And they needed a lot of funds.
They could not get money and they borrowed a hell lot of money especially in 2020 and 2021. Please take note this this date they borrowed a lot of money in 2020 and 2021. What happened in 2020 and 2021 if you recall okay the interest rate were very low because the Federal Reserve were printing money like crazy lending out money like crazy. Okay. Now we will talk a lot about this but these companies right now after 5 years they may be doing well initially but now they are facing disruption from AI. A lot of software companies you look at the NASDAQ these software companies are now being hit. Uh there are also some psych cyclical company or some even distress company. But the one that's really very big is in this chart this number three. Why borrowers you so stupid? You go and borrow from private credit. Okay. Well, despite such a high borrowing cost, the
borrowers borrow from private credit because there are some advantages. This m these deals can be closed very fast. They can borrow money far quicker. Okay. And and this uh these companies uh were so happy that wow you know I want money I can borrow it borrow it in weeks instead of uh you know go through very serious due diligence and paperwork and finding collateral guarantors and things like know just this one very quick in matter of weeks they get it ready speed is important to businessmen speed is uh is money and there's a lot of flexibility Okay, the lenders can customize the deal for you easily and you can borrow a lot. Okay, that means uh the private firms allow six to seven times IDA leverage. Uh IDA leverage how to explain it is basically uh a form of your profit.
Okay, you can borrow many times on that. So some of these companies are not even making profit also. So number one, they are willing to take more risk. Number two, they are flexible. Number three, they are very fast. Wow. Desperate borrowers go to private credit. Of course. Okay. Yeah. I know of a Singapore company that I've dealt with. Yeah. They they they no choice. They quickly went to a private credit because the public credit impossible to borrow money. Now, what's the problem right now? Well, they they hold this long-term illquid loans. Okay. And suddenly right now there is a problem. Okay. Uh there is a rising redemption issue. Let me tell you the in a nutshell what's happening. Most of them borrow during the cheap interest rate days of 2020 and 2021. The Federal Reserve in order to quickly stimulate
the market to fight the to fight the crash of COVID really went out to cut interest rate almost down to zero. Do you remember then a lot of companies got very cheap interest uh interest loan they quickly take it up. These loan tenurs are usually 5 years. These tenurs are five years. So 2020 to 2021 plus 5 years is when 2025 to 2026 which is now. But what's happening right now guys? A few things happening. Interest rate is much higher that compared to before. Okay. What's the business uh right now for these software companies? They all face a threat of AI things that require a lot of software to do right now. AI can do it much better, much cheaper. Okay. And as a result, you know, they face threat. On top of that,
right now we have a oil crisis that's [snorts] hitting uh the world. So one, two, three all come together. This uh companies right now got no money to pay. Okay. Now, so this time around the a lot of uh a lot of all these borrowers need to borrow more money instead of repaying it. But this is a time where the people don't want to take any more risk. There is this thing uh happening right now. A lot of the a lot of the lenders to private uh private credit companies. Imagine Mr. Lou lend to a private credit company who then lend to a software company. Wow. I look at all the AI companies right now failing. I know this company is lending to all these software company. What do I do? I quickly want to take money my money out. Hey, then I quickly once I quickly want to take my money, I also tell my friend, hey, you also lend money. This company, I take the money also. Suddenly a lot of people want to take money out. What would the company
do? Well, they're not like the banks and things like that. They can choose this thing called gate withdrawals. That means they close the gate, stop people from withdrawing. Okay? When you do that, what happen? Well, when you do that, you make people more worried. Then the more people want to withdraw. And this in a banking term has a phrase called run on the bank. But this is not a bank. So this become a run on the fund. Okay. Some of them uh in order to service the loan uh the withdrawal they do fire sale fire sale portfolio sell the they they lend this loan right they say okay they sell to another company do you like to take over this loan for half the price so things are like that are happening right now so there's there's rising redemption pressure on the private credit market so several private credit firms have already experienced large redemption request they prompt
prompting withdrawal gates. They're closing gate stopping people for withdrawing. Once you do that, you pro you cause more people to want to take money. So this is happening right now as we speak. Don't you think this is a problem, guys? Well, if it's a small problem, if it's a small scale, never mind. This is 3.5 trillion freaking dollars. 3.5 trillion freaking dollars. That's bigger than the GDP of Singapore but I don't know how many times GDP of Singapore is probably about 600 five 600 billion dollars there sing I can't remember that S or US that's probably uh that's probably S. So in US in US terms our GDP is probably about four 500 400 US dollars 400 billion US dollars that is three trillion you know see h so right now a lot of them are getting
worried and this uh trigger a lot of redemption requests. Now these are not banks huh these are private credit companies just to be very clear private credit companies and in some sense thank god these are all mainly in US okay they all mainly in US we don't get this problem in Singapore okay I don't think you get this problem in in Malaysia as well however some of the US banks are more exposed to the private credit market than they appear the the private credit market we thought operate outside the banking system. That's not true. A lot of the banks now are visibly intertwined with a private credit market although they they don't personally extend loans uh as a private credit. So this they extend credit lines to private credit firms. They because the private credit markets are doing so well they lend money to them. Okay. And as a result uh
this this kind of uh situation is quite serious. Give you an example. Deutsch Bank okay have $30 billion exposure to credit uh private credit loans. JP Morgan $50 billion to support private credit market and Bank of America $25 billion to private credit market. Barlay banks 2020 20 billion sorry 20 billion pounds okay to private credit. Morgan Stanley don't know the full amount. They know it's a lot. Altogether from what is uh is reported they have about $1.9 trillion of lending exposure to non-bank financial institution including private credit firms. So the banks are involved in this as well. And I just need to say this if banks are involved we potentially have a banking crisis. Okay. Potentially. Right. So the key thing is uh right now the the borrowing companies
are in trouble. Why? Because uh the the lending rate during the lending rate is about 3% during uh 20220 to 2021. The borrowers now if they refinance it you know can go as high as 9%. So 9 to 10%. So this tripling of the debt will kill this company and past the fact that now their business are not doing well. So so we have this thing called the refinancing war. Okay, refinancing war which is what I described. They lend their they their loans were borrowed during 2020 and 2021. There's a fiveyear period. Now the fire period is now exiting. They all facing this loans of m uh this loan maturity right now simultaneously a lot of them at today's interest rate. Okay. Very chalat. So a lot of them cannot afford. So we now have a big
problem. Uh I'll skip this one. This is uh this is far aggravated by AI disruption. I already told you the software companies which are last year the borrowers they can't afford uh they can't afford to pay a lot because their company's not doing well because AI disrupted their business. Nobody needs software developers anymore in a big scale. Even cuckoo Mr. Lou who is 50 years old never coded in his life recently developed so many software. Okay. Uh some of you all have uh attended my my retired confidence class, investing class. All the software we use are developed by myself which I'm uh which I'm very proud of myself. But if uncle like me can develop software right now, let alone uh software companies right now, who need all these software companies right now? So it's very serious. Now let's talk about the current
situation with the oil shop. Clearly I hope by now everybody know that we have a oil shock right now. Okay, unless you are living in a in a mountain. Okay, there is a serious oil shock right now. All the petrol prices are going up. Just now I passed by even the Malaysian petrol are also going up. Thank god they are still oneird the price of Singapore. In Singapore our highest premium 98 petrol I think it's $4 already. in Hong Kong is $5 Singapore dollar. That's why a lot of cars from Hong Kong now drive in the Shenzhen to pump petrol and hopefully get a better rate. I don't know as a sha I know it's cheaper. So we now have a we have a serious uh crisis on the oil side of things and if this war worsen don't don't uh free up the choke point at the streets of Homos then oil prices could go to now it's already 100 can go to 120 150 and if Iran's have
his way will hit 200 we then have a global inflation crisis and we will have also what we call a stackflation Okay, we also have a stackflation where econ economically it goes down and in inflation goes up. That itself is catastrophic already. Put that problem into the private credit market. What we have is a thermonuclear explosion in the financial sector. Of all the private credit market will explode in a massive way. So these two crisis are interlin together already stand by itself the p credit market is breaking you plus the oil shock into it it's like putting a coffin into the put a nail in the coffin so so clearly this $3.5 trillion is not trivial now I don't know whether it will
how this will unfold usually if it's without the oil crisis is just the private credit market. It will be cat it will be painful and catastrophic but it's not lethal in a sense that if you look in the 2007208 financial crisis the Federal Reserve quickly come in print money print the world's problem away. It take it took a long time by the way. It took a couple of years for it to solve the problem but at least the problem gone away. But you can't do that in an inflationary environment. When the when there is inflation, the Federal Reserve cannot print money. That will fuel the fire. They have to increase the interest rate. But increasing interest rate will kill the private credit market even more. Can you see the problem right now? So when you have a confluence of two big problem together, I actually think the Federal Reserve is powerless to solve this problem. Okay. Now
a lot of people now my job is to highlight crisis pro possibility and I'll just say this will this blow in a big way go read your read up yourself is all over the news the financial news right now I'm not the one I'm in fact late in talking about this problem already a lot of people talk this problem in a big massive way I'll just say this don't get caught off guard Okay. Um, now a lot of people think that uh my crash buying kung fu is just oh quickly crash buy make money and things like that. That is partially true. But at the very least learning that will protect you from investment chaos in a crash. You have most of you have not gone through the stock market crash of 2007 and 2008. Okay. in a big way. I was there. I executed crash buying. I was prepared.
I'll just say this to be prepared with a crash. You really need time to prepare and there are things steps to prepare. Get yourself ready. Okay. Get yourself trained uh in uh in this art. I'm not househ. I think the crisis uh threat is very real right now. Okay. So with this um this is a long lesson but I thought it's important for me to highlight uh let me just uh okay all right okay first of all does everybody understand this lesson because this is quite cheap this is quite cheap does everybody understand this lesson is my lesson clear enough okay at least yes or no okay clear enough or not clear enough for you to understand right that's all I want to do that's achieve let's achieve that first for for for all of you all to understand uh this the problem first crystal clear thank you okay only JL K uh okay I just want
to I just want you all to understand the problem first so now let me drink some waterh sorry guys Okay. Thank you guys. Okay. All right. No, I can't repeat it. You could watch the video again. Okay. Yeah. Now, okay. This is where um I'm happy to answer some questions. Okay. I'm h happy to answer some questions. Uh the first thing uh to do is Okay. What do I intend to do with my bonds? I got a couple of bonds. Which bonds are you talking about? So I got TLT, I got uh T bills, I got BIMCO bonds, I got my technically my all my CPF are bonds as well. So which one you talking about? Okay. All right. Thank you guys. Okay. Yeah. So I think this is uh quite Oh by the
way anybody just to say on Tuesday I'm running a crash course on crash buying for two hours I only have uh yesterday we only have three more se we open a new class and that class is almost finishing as well. So uh if you are keen quickly sign up this one is fully funded by skills futures. It's a crash blind class. I'm going to conduct a lesson on Tuesday. After that, I will not do any more crash cost anymore. Okay, I got no time to do it. That's the only time I have to squeeze this. I got CINB event even uh there. Now I can announce Deputy Prime Minister Gimyong is coming to my channel. That's a very busy time. So there's a lot of things that happening right now. I've got uh a lot of things to do. This will be my last crash course, okay, on crash buying. the rest I'll still do it but it will be uh it will be much later if you want to learn
right now this is your last chance I'm not going to do anyone the last time I told everybody this will be the last time I do my my basic AI courses people think I'm fooling I close it totally everybody now asking me Mr. Why do you run an AI course? I told everybody that's my last time. The next class that I ever do my AI course will be sophisticated AI. I will not do the the simple one. So anyway, this is the last time. Okay, so now let me answer some questions. So if you want to attend the crash buying course, okay, you have to sign up the form one. I'll do a quick one on Tuesday for two hours. At least you level up. All right. Okay. Uh, do you think Donald Trump Donald Trump will blame this private credit issue to Joe Biden? He'll blame everybody. He'll blame everybody. Okay. Yeah, he'll blame everybody. But I don't think he has any freaking mind what to do about this thing. He's He's very good in business negotiation. Full stop.
I came to realize this. Remember yesterday our video I realized what he's really good and what he's really bad at. Okay. So time to sell. Well, we don't know when the the the crisis will blow up. We don't know. Okay. One year, two year scaly it doesn't, right? Hard to say, right? Today I give you the problem. Okay. And and I think it's important for all of us to be prepared for it. I will work out uh maybe a few sets of uh possible solutions uh what I think uh should be done on this. I'm still researching on this uh this part to see what can be done. Ben gave me a few complicated uh solution but involves a lot of options and things like that. Okay. I think uncle me too difficult. Okay. At my age. Yeah. I got to think of something much more simpler. uh PIMCO bonds were uh PIMCO bonds in a threat of inflation like all bonds will go down
okay PIMCO bonds are going down is I don't think it's because of private credit risk is because of the inflation risk okay because of inflation risk are you streaming from my bangalow this is a semid Malaysian semid okay will Singapore banks be impacted for sure for sure Okay. Yeah. Mr. Lou should buy a book on crash buying. I I got no time now. Okay. I got no time and it's not so easy uh to it's not I got no time now. Basically I got no time. Okay. Yeah. Uh how much is it fully utilized skills future? Try to see whether you can Okay. What is good about my course is this uh mine is a online course right? If you run out of skills future, pull a family member that haven't used your skills future, both of you sit together in the class. I don't care. The more people attend, I'm happier with this. Okay. So,
I think it's very good. So, you can ask your husband or your wife. So, probably let's say you have a you have a partner that you can pull in. You jointly join the lesson. So, he must he he must be there or she must be there, but you can be there as well. Okay? But the person who sign up must be there. Yeah. Uh really good stuff. Thanks, Mr. L. You're welcome. I've checked. Tamasi has USD $7.5 billion exposure to private credit loans to USA. Wow. Really? I didn't know that. But $7.5 billion not a lot of money. Let me think. No, it's a lot of money. Sorry, I'm thinking of 7 750. $7.5 billion is a lot of money. So Tamasic will be in trouble as well. Is it a good time to accumulate Singapore bank shares now? I'm a I'm a crash buyer. Yes, the Singapore stocks have come down. I don't see coming down a lot. Okay. So I wouldn't buy it now. Fiscal or online
class? It's a online class. Okay. It's online class. So that's why I say it's very easy to get someone who has skills future credit. Now you pair up together and sit together. better still both learn together. Okay, Ivy, very clear. Thank you, Mr. Lou. The Fed cannot QE and cannot vocal reserve cannot do anything to solve a problem like this. That is why it's going to be a big problem. Okay, let me give you let me explain. Does everybody understand why the Federal Reserve cannot solve this problem? The Federal Reserve only have one to two interest rate only one two interest rate. Okay. And you can say other other other other things but basically it goes back to interest rate. If this problem is driven by a high oil
prices which cause inflation. Without the private credit market, what would the Federal Reserve do? The Federal Reserve will increase interest rate to push the inflation down. Yes. Will it collapse the economy? Yes, it would. But it at least kill the inflation first. I'm just assuming that Kelvin Walsh, the uh new Federal Reserve chairman, will be as wise as Jerome Powell in doing that. Okay. But the private credit market if it explodes will require a lot of lending support to help these companies which requires the interest rate to come down. But when interest rate come down to lend to these company if you inflation further which is already there. So you cut interest rate you cause inflation to go up a lot. You spike interest rate you kill the private credit market even more. Can you see why this is a big problem? The Federal Reserve is caught between
the devil and the deep blue sea. I hope you understand. Is my explanation clear? Okay. What if the Federal Reserve cut interest rate die? Yeah, you fuel inflation. Bahin start output cuts at the world top aluminium mel smelter. Oh, I didn't know that. 1976 my father lost two detached houses he was developing on his investment land as interest rates skyrocketed. That is during the oil crisis of the 1970s. Wow, that's an interesting story. Okay, I'm going down with ship coke silver will drop $1. What about TLT? TLT will go down as well. Okay, TLT will go down as well. Now before you all start thinking, well, Mr. blue you say sell until I then say I sell everything I didn't first of all that's not the that is not the purpose of me telling you all market crashes presents a a huge
market opportunity to people who are prepared and the series of skills necessary to get yourself prepared I teach them this course okay uh to get you prepared uh and I I do uh I do tell everybody for last time this Tuesday I'm running a crash course for two hours for people sign up on the full course. Okay. So this will be your last chance uh for you to sign up once my class fills up. No more no more. No more I got no more bandwidth to handle. The last time we handled 200 over students. Wow. It was very difficult. So I told my wife this time class fill up no more. I cannot take so many students. Okay. Uh Trump reject deal on Iran on current terms of the war which of course he won't even accept one of the deal the Iranian one number one okay Trump us get the hell out of my region number two okay sa swear on your next generation and the
generation and your ancestors that I will never attack you again third is you cause so much damage in my company pay right pay and after that you know uh I can't remember what else you think you think Trump will give in to this Trump totally no face okay you think property price will crash if this crisis ever happen it's a big if this crisis happen property will show crash okay I don't think the national debt of US is a big problem yet. It's a big problem but not yet uh not yet explosive problem because the US government no let's everybody need to understand everybody say why US debt problem very big very very big the US debt is denominated in US dollar which the US government can print the
money can print the problem away imagine thish I lend myself this okay I lend myself. I lend myself uh okay I I borrow a lot of money okay from my own bank. The bank is called Lu and Lu uh Lou and Lou Bank. Okay. I borrow a lot of money. Wow. Millions and millions and millions of dollars. But that bank, the money inside is not sing dollar is printed by me. It's called Lu and Lu currency dollars. Okay? I can print whatever I want to borrow. How serious the problem is. Don't you realize US can print that problem away. Yes, you cause inflation. Okay. Yes, you call inflation. You know the best part? The whole world will will experience the inflation with us. So I don't offload my PICO bonds. Okay. I don't offload my PCO
bonds uh because the the returns rate are still very good. Okay. And but I will do a wait and see. Okay. Okay, I'll do away and see because uh the inflation risk that we're seeing right now in my opinion is a short-term inflation risk. That means that I think in the worst case 21 months. Okay, I'm I'm looking at the history of uh 1973. 21 months the market crash and then come back. Um I don't think this problem will last so long. I don't think so. Okay. I don't think so. Yeah, I don't think so. It's hard to say. I don't think so. Yes, Serene. I mean, JB, you can use EI to write a book. You'll be level. What's the point of writing a book? Y I talk you listen enough. I write a book for what? Nobody got time to read. Can you give me the link? Link to what? Pauline. Sorry. Link to what? Sorry. Pauline, will you consider selling a pin code?
No, I won't yet. Okay. I won't yet. Um, and to be frank, I don't have a huge exposure to PIMCO and TLT relative to my whole portfolio. What is my biggest bond portfolio, guys? Which I always tell you all to have. What is your biggest bond portfolio you must have, guys? I told everybody almost every week, what is the biggest bond portfolio you must have? your think about it now with the private credit uh showing what should I do with Pinko private credit uh at this juncture. Okay, I would just say this the private credit market the private credit market uh is not the biggest risk to your PINO bond unless PIMCO lends money to private credit. I don't think so. Okay. I don't know. I don't think so. However, however, the great inflation if it ever comes will
hit your pingo fund. Will it happen? I don't know. It depends on Donald Trump and Iran negotiating. Okay. So, to be frank, I think the oil crisis, all oil crisis, majority of them get resolved eventually within some time. Okay? A lot of them are shortterm. So I think that uh I'm less worried about the inflation part. I'm more worried about the inflation part hit on the private credit and cause explosion for that event to happen. That is a scenario. I didn't say that it will happen. It could happen. So we watch and get ready. Okay, we watch and get ready. Uh how will big tech recoup their investment or AI investments? Well, I cannot answer this question, but I already can say that uh AI is becoming more and more a AI is become more and more a necessity for most people. Look
at myself. Wow. I get rid of about five to 10 staff already. I only I get five to 10 staff. I you know save how much? 10 $20,000 a month roughly. How much do I pay to replace them? I use a few AI machines. Okay. less than $100. $100 or so maybe okay let's say $200 $200 and save 10 star why not this $200 okay is my say so everybody soon realized wow AI damn good what would they do they all subscribe to AI pay for AI eventually AI will find their returns back okay am I crazy to think that Trump purposely orchestrated all this to crash the market no I don't think you I don't think I don't think so I don't think so okay he don't like market to crash about when DPM gun is coming to the channel. Um June, I think June. Yeah, he's not coming to me live. Coming in a recorded
one. Okay. Right now there are his uh people are talking to me. Um if Pinko bonds are dropping with a risk of inflation, will you still be holding on? I put it that way. Um, I think the question really is, is this inflation short-term or long-term? Yeah, short-term or long term. If it's shortterm, I'll probably, you know, um, just take on. If it's long-term, then I might think otherwise. Okay. Yeah. Um, will the US give up on solving private credit? give up. I don't think they will give up if this private credit problem blows up. But I don't know what can they do. I don't know what can they do. Okay.
Uh what is the date for the investment class this? Okay. I don't know the main I think the main cost is in May but the crash course is this Tuesday. I'll do a 2hour session crash course in this in this Tuesday. So I'll do a 1 hour plus and 1 hour Q&A. Okay, it's in this Tuesday and the seats are almost filled up already. So you want one you just sign up. Okay, it's all funded by skill future one never mind. Okay, I don't waste your time. I'm just telling you all after this I will not run another crash course again. I'll be busy handling the crash. Okay, go. Wow. I don't know that I thought this go will go up like to the roof but it go up and down up and down up and down very difficult to determine okay I'm not good in determine go price will government give help okay anyway save the bank alone I don't think they can save the private credit company uh but
they will try to save the financial system I will say this who bought endaw's private credit EPC fund Whoa. My my son also warned me against that. I was choosing between uh they call it that. Okay. I don't think I can say it between one fund and a private credit fund. My son told me stay away from private credit. You don't get get yourself killed. Wow. Really really very wise. Now this one uh I made uh quite a bit of money in that one and he's still holding strong. I'm actually quite impressed with Ben. Ben is really amazing. Many black swan possibilities. Yes. Many black swan possib I don't think AI is a black swan in my heart. I don't think so. Oil is a black swan. Private query is a black swan. I don't think black swan. I only hold some amount of S&P. Should I sell or wait for
wait for the crash? Uh Chris, do you have you attended my first of all I did 10 live streams free? No need to attend. Did you watch all of them? Because I instructed everybody what to do. Then a lot of people busy not free whatsoever. Okay. Then I said join my investing confidence class. Okay. Then I tell people what to do. Yeah. So I actually uh this you know why I have to instruct everybody in these classes and not this open is because in those classes I make you sign disclaimers here I cannot say I tell you okay for example I tell you sell okay then we will crash buy then you sell market go up then I cannot let's say I tell you don't sell okay then market crash also cannot do you understand yeah so I cannot tell you sell or don't sell Okay, I will I will just tell you I when I hold something I hold for life. Okay, I hold for life. Yeah,
Serene I think I say before they are funded by uh by skills futures. Okay, funded by skills futures. So if you got skills futures credit lab is free for you. So it's just this class only those cash company respect. Yes I think so. Okay. Uh so Joseph same thing uh the course is uh fully funded by skills futures credit okay if you still have skills future credit uh the fat will if you don't have skills future credit drag someone that skills future credit in the class with you okay it's online class anyway so you attend together yeah that's the way I would say fed will continue to print money to sort they can't print money if there's an inflation okay Ellen did you I hope you understand that Maybe I I I I fail as a teacher for you to understand this. When there is a fierce inflation, the Federal Reserve is powerless to solve the private credit problem. I hope you understand that. Okay. Uh let me drink
some water. The US regulator has included private credit crisis scenario in the bank stress test in 2025 and 2026. I hope so. Okay. U do local banks have exposure? Someone said that theastics have a $7.6 billion exposure. I don't know whether that's true. Okay. Maybe 7.6 toastic is uh subsup water. I don't know. Okay. I think it's quite a lot. If it wasn't for the stupid war, they could have saved this subprime thing. Yes. Yes. If the war didn't happen, if the if the credit if the private credit market just explode, let's say explode. Very simple. Even I also know what to do. I don't even need to be a Federal Reserve chairman. I just quickly lower interest rate, quickly lend money to all
these people, solve the problem. Yeah. Okay. But now you have inflation. Wow. I cannot hit on both sides. Uh will the government give up on Okay, I think you answered question. What is the size of private credit market against US security? Can you do a check? Uh what is the size of the US? You know what? Let me just do a quick uh search. Okay. Uh what is size of US uh stock market? Okay. Yep. Okay. Let me find out. Okay. It's about 60 trillion. 60 trillion. Now maybe slightly less. Okay. 50 plus trillion. Okay. Let's say 60 trillion. Yeah. 60 trillion. Okay. Um fat can only adjust interest rate and create money. Yes. If could Trump wake
up that he cannot change Iran even if oil hit 125. No. Let's say Donald Trump wakes up now. I don't want to fight anymore. I'm going to go pull out now. Pull out now. Hello. He he just irritated a hound. Have you ever met wild dogs before? When I was young, I got bitten by a dog before. Okay, no joke. The dog once they bite bite the don't let go on. You know, you can beat and beat and beat and beat at the dog. A bit very difficult. You have to pry open his freaking mouth and things like that. trauma. I just want to say this. Iran is the right now. They don't want to let him go right now. I will bomb the out of the the Gulf countries or
infrastructure and I will attack all the relevant bankers. What can Donald Trump do now? That's what that's what Iranians say. Okay. Maybe Iranian also house. I don't know. Okay. I I don't know. I don't know. Okay. Uh but if they p print too much money, what happen? Inflation. That's the biggest problem. Is that WhatsApp number for cost enrollment for Singapore? Malaysia. Singapore. Singapore. Let me ask you all how many Malaysians are here that would like to attend the course? How many Malaysian? Okay. If you're a Malaysian that would like to attend the course, say me me only Malaysian, Singaporean because I'll be teaching I I'm thinking of I've been trying to think think of this. I've been trying to think of Malaysian specific ones. I'll talk about the EPF, the power EPF and then I'll weave that uh into uh and then
I I can weave the crash buying cost as well. Uh I want to know how many Malaysians are here and if I got enough crowd then I do it. If not enough crowd, I don't waste time. Yeah. Okay. How long do you estimate the oil crisis? I can't tell. I really can't tell you all this politics. It's not economics. I can't tell. Is a tra in JB heavy at the custom is a breeze in JB town. Wow. C a lot of people. Yes. CPF is the most important thing. Okay. Uh the link. Okay. Uh Pauline, sorry there's just too many. Pauline, uh if you want to sign up, just WhatsApp this number here. The running number here. Just WhatsApp the running number. Can you see the running number here? 97806882. Okay. Yeah. What conditions will make you sell PIMO fund? H
a very prolong uh a very prolong uh inflationary environment maybe. Okay. that that could prolong prolong shortterm I won't okay uh okay why is crypto prices rising go dumping I don't know okay yeah would you encourage people over 70 to do crash buying [snorts] uh Zeni I I will just say this I think it's it's all about magnitude let's say okay Zeni I'll just say this in the early part of my class I'll cheaper when you reach a certain okay I always say this and I'll say again your age is your bond ratio this part I'm pretty open I say many times your age is your bond ratio which means that let's say if you are 70 years old make sure 70% of your assets are in stable assets like bonds and you can only afford up to 30% of asset in
volatile asset no more than that okay that could get you killed so don't do that. So, so if you want to do crash buying, yes, 30% not and no more than that. Okay. 30% of your asset. Okay. Crypto is not a safe haven. It just happened to go up. I wouldn't say that. Okay. Uh any chance that Donald Trump will back up? I think he wants to do that now, but I don't think it can. Okay. Crash recover faster due. Yes. Will this problem uh if this wrong continuous property will crash? Yes. I think not not all AI startup will survive. Probably the top three startup a lot people die. Yes. Okay. Longterm I never seen anything drop. Uh okay buy more years one thing I to ask future cost. I remember must use sing pass to sign attendance. Of course of course Matthew. Yes. Uh Japan has issue. Okay. What's the name of course you conduct with that
trainer? Mr. Sochin Hing's CPF mastery course. That's really very good. CPF mastery course. Every time I teach a course, I'm also a student. Okay. I get trained by Mr. Mr. Soing as well. If I go only your 1K to invest, is it pointless to crash by? Okay. I would just say this. Um it's important to build your financial safety net first. Okay. That's my my encouragement. Uh because got loser cannot take responsibility. Yes. Is it a good time to buy commercial REITs? REITs will crash in an inflationary environment. Okay. So be careful. Okay. The US government will just bail them out. They can't bail. When you say bail means what? Bail means print money. Print money, right? To help these people. Print money is inflationary. They can't do that in the inflationary environment. Yeah.
If we never attend attend of the P cause, we are able to understand the crash course cost. No. Uh same issue. I don't understand your question. Maybe you can help me. Can I use my elderly motherly skill future? She must sit in the course with you. Okay. She must sit in a course with you. Yeah. How much excuse your credit do I need? 420 I think. Okay. Yeah. uh for people above 40. Yeah. What is the course you recommended do study in university? Finance versus engineering. Wow. I think the most important thing is passion. What's your passion? Yeah. Looks like this looks like this PE crisis have been there for a while. Okay. Yes. Inflation is due to tariff and war. They can control the tariff at least. Yes. Okay. If cannot print money now means the the market will stay low for it's it's going to be first of all we just say this if this private credit
market explodes if I don't know where it will if then you'll be plus uh oil crisis these two come together w this is shalot very very shallot okay Iran and all running on missiles no I don't think so I don't think so I don't think they're running on missiles and weapons soon. I don't think so. They have slowed down a lot. I don't think running out. They lot of missiles as I see from their their videos. Okay. Uh suicide bomber when super me. Oh, so many Malaysian. Oh, so many Malaysians. Okay. Hey, a few of you said me a few times. Okay. Uh wait, I'm just trying to say this. Do you pay your staff RB? Okay. What's RB? Okay. Uh, okay. Some familiar. Okay. What's your
take on gold and silver? It should go up, but uh for gold, but uh I'm not a good predictor of gold. Okay. All right. Okay. So, for the Malaysians, for the Malaysians, I'll be working out a course. I'll be working on a course that teach you how to really do well using your really do well using your EPF. Okay? And I will try to also incorporate the crash buying cost into the EPF course as well. Okay? That I'll try to do. I'll make announcement soon. I I I got to have time to work on it. Okay. Uh yeah, I got to have time to work on it. Live go. No more life go idea. Well, she maybe have. Okay. If you're interested. Yeah, maybe I have live go. Okay. Uh I'm a Malaysian 45 years old. Is Malaysia
10 cent of 10k a month enough in 15 years? Pension is it pension of 10k a month enough in 15 years time? In Malaysia? Yes. Yeah. In Malaysia, I think so. Okay. Is buying gold ETF safer than buying real gold? When you say safe means what? That you won't go down. If you go down, both will go down, right? Can you briefly describe what are types of AI skills you have learned so far? I share quite openly about it, right? Yeah, I use uh use it uh well I use so many AI until I when difficult to answer your question. It's integrated as part of my life right now. Just an example. Let's say I get in a fight with my wife. Okay. Ding ding ding. Radical. Then I what? I will ask I will I will ask AI. I want you to take on the persona of my wife. She's like that like that like that. Okay. Please help me now. I'm going to now rehearse with you what I'm going to tell her
that that even that I use AI, you know. Yeah. Okay. So that's quite that's quite extreme, right? Malaysian PR, you all may not know, is nearly impossible to get. A lot of youall don't realize this. Malaysian PR is almost impossible to get. Impossible. Okay. Impossible. I kid you not. Okay. Uh I attend your Okay. So, uh skip to Malo said, "Looking for a Malaysian version. Thanks, Mr. Lou. I attended your financial course before and I it was good. So can't wait for the Malaysian related one. Great. Okay. I'll try I'll try to work on it. Okay. And uh I'll try to work on it. I I genuinely want the Malaysian to do well. Okay. All the Singaporeans so far the 1965 movement helped many many of them have become very rich already. I'm very happy. So now I'm trying to help the
Malaysian as well. Okay. Uh yes. marry a Malaysian even I don't know about marry a Malaysian where I even marry a Malaysian if you are Chinese almost impossible to get a almost impossible to get a PR almost impossible uh USA reset economy with high interest to strengthen dollar I don't know okay [snorts] I know of a lot of Malaysians with PR if they are Malaysians Why do they want Why do they need PR? Okay. No, no. PR in Malaysia, not Malaysia, not Malaysian PR in Singapore. Singapore PR easy to get. Malaysian PR is very Malaysia PR is very difficult to get. Okay. Yeah. Skip to Mala also said Malaysian
PR impossible to get even marry a Malaysian those who don't work. Yes. That's what I'm trying to tell. A lot of people don't know. I'm just wondering can the world superpower pressure to stop? No. No. He Yes. Even he want to stop also cannot stop now. Is your main AI clock or check both? Yeah. Okay. Uh spouse of Malaysian citizen foreigners. Yeah. You just get a long-term social visit pass for years. You won't get PR. Almost impossible. [snorts] Okay. Almost impossible. Yeah. Okay. Now I'm trying to look. Uh, no. I haven't used uh open claw yet. Yeah. Will Singaporean want to be PR in Malaysia? Some may want to. MF2 and PR is not the same. According to law, if you are married to Malaysian wife can
get no a Malaysian man. I never heard of that before. Okay. I only use deepse when I want to check China things. Okay. Uh Susan, attend my attend my course. I'll tell you that because I cannot answer this question right now. Okay. Not allowed to. Yeah. Only Singapore give up PR and season easily. Okay. Okay. M2 is M2 just pay money only. That one is easy. PR is nearly impossible. But for Singaporeans, why do you need PR in Malaysia? Okay. You don't need You don't need PR in Malaysia. Okay. I I have I use uh Oh, I have this uh let me see. I can I have I can show you guys. Yeah, this one. Okay, let me hide the number so you cannot see. Okay, this is called an APEC card. Can
you see Ape Business Travel Card? So, this travel card will allow you 90 days 90 days to stay in Malaysia. So, 90 days to stay in Malaysia. Um, and uh as a result uh I don't even need 90 days. I don't even stay in Malaysia for 9 days straight. Okay. I don't. Yeah. So, they back business card is very powerful. And by the way, it allows you to stay in many many countries for a very prolonged period of time. Uh if you can get your company HR to write a letter for you to let a apply, I think pay I don't know how much $60 or something like that. We don't it's very complicated. Okay. You can see here many countries here because got my passport number there. allow you to stay in extended period in Australia, Brunai. CHL is where? China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico. I don't know if MS is where, New
Zealand, uh Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines, and Russia even. Oh, wow. So, a lot of places. Okay. Yeah. You are able to buy a house as a foreigner. Where am I right now? Where am I right now? Yeah. Singapore also allow for foreigners to buy houses in in Singapore. Yeah. Okay. Yes. Oh, my is Malaysia. Okay. Yeah. Thank you. All right. Okay. Thank you guys. I think it's getting late. 1 hour plus. I hope this one helped you a lot. Okay. Can we buy Malaysian property? You you don't need a Malay uh APC business card to buy Malaysian property. I already bought the Malaysian property without the Apex card. I already bought already. Look at this this this house here, right? This house here, this house here, this this house here is
is a bought bought bought. Yeah. Price is cheaper than a three- room resale flat in Singapore. Okay. All right. Okay. Tell you what. Okay. Now for me to go walking. Good night, guys. Okay. Good night. Uh do some walking around. Today I I clocked 17,000 steps. I'm very happy about it. Okay. Yeah. Uh I stopped going to Europe for quite some time really and the footfall is quite bad. Yeah. The last time I was there was uh October. I think it was quite bad. Yeah. Okay. Good night. Okay. Good night. Yeah. Okay. Let me say it last time. Tuesday will be the last time I'm doing the course. Okay, Tuesday last time I'm doing a crash course. After I won't do a crash course again, so quickly WhatsApp this number if you want to learn the art of crash buying. Okay, and uh thank you everybody. Okay, JB right now. Thank you. Okay. Yeah, I just walked in my
househ. I just I got trap me. I got trap me in my house. Okay. Yeah. Thank you guys. Thank you guys. Okay. Thank you guys. Okay. All right. Thank you everybody. Have a good night. Okay. Have a good Thanks, Sister Christie Ken. Thank you. Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. Good night everybody. Okay. Good night. Okay. Good night. Good night family. Good night. Good night everybody. Give me some time to work out Malaysia course. I'm I'm I'm working on it. Okay. I'm working on it. I'm trying trying my best to work on it. Okay. Okay. Good night everybody. Okay. Good night everybody. Bye-bye. Bye-bye.